AGP Executive Report

Cuba–Dominican Republic Diplomacy: Cuba welcomed 10 diplomats expelled from the Dominican Republic, with Deputy FM Josefina Vidal calling it a response to U.S. pressure and warning it aims to isolate Havana and weaken regional solidarity. U.S. Pressure on Cuba: A new U.S. State Department report alleges Cuba runs a long-running espionage and political-influence campaign in the U.S., including references to Dominican-linked activists tied to solidarity work. Fuel Crisis & Daily Life: Havana’s garbage collection is being hit by the fuel squeeze, with a solar-powered electric three-wheeler startup stepping in to collect trash in one neighborhood. Sanctions Logic in Practice: Commentary argues the blockade’s stated goal is to drive hunger and desperation as a path to political change, using dialysis deaths as the stark example. Cuban Governance Under Strain: Cuba’s 65th National Baseball Series is reshaped to save fuel, shifting to two zones and four groups with revised travel-heavy matchups. U.S. Politics Touching Cuban Florida: Florida’s Democratic Senate primary produced Angie Nixon, a Democratic Socialist, who will face GOP Sen. Ashley Moody—an election framed as a new battle over Cuba policy among Cuban-American voters. Regional Watch: The OAS voted to summon foreign ministers over Nicaragua’s democratic crisis, underscoring widening hemispheric pressure on authoritarian moves.

US-Iran Tensions: Trump denied any Iran talks while posting a map claiming the Strait of Hormuz as “new U.S. territory,” escalating a dispute Tehran calls delusional and raising fears for an ally like Oman. Florida Politics: In key Aug. 18 primaries, progressive Democrat Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman for Florida’s Senate nomination, while Republicans Byron Donalds and David Jolly won their gubernatorial bids—setting up a November showdown shaped by Trump-era politics. Cuba Human Rights: Cuban state security imposed a precautionary measure on Masonic leader José Ramón Viñas Alonso after interrogation for “disobedience,” restricting movement and travel. Cuba Repression Spotlight: A legal alert says hemophilia patient Doraykis Delgado González remains jailed after a protest over blackouts, facing charges tied to “defamation” and denied bail. Cuba Abroad & Security: A report alleges Cuban agents infiltrated sports venues in the Dominican Republic during the Central American and Caribbean Games, even wearing athletes’ uniforms to prevent defections. Gender Violence Data: Cuba’s official statistics office says 49 femicide cases were tried in 2025, with independent groups reporting higher totals. Immigration Policy: New U.S. “public charge” guidance for green card applicants takes effect Sept. 18, potentially expanding scrutiny of means-tested benefits.

Cuba–Dominican Republic Diplomatic Rift: The MIU’s Miguel Mejía condemned the Dominican government’s Aug. 13 expulsion of Cuban diplomats, calling it an “unfortunate exception” amid U.S.-linked pressure and arguing that shared history matters more than formal ties. Cuba Domestic Repression: Cubalex warned that Doraykis Delgado González (“Koky”) remains detained after a July protest over blackouts, despite hemophilia and requests to change her precautionary measure. Cuba Security at Sports Events: Diario Libre reports Cuban state security infiltrated the Dominican Republic’s Central American and Caribbean Games, with agents allegedly wearing other athletes’ uniforms to prevent defections. Cuba Human Rights & Gender Violence: Cuba’s official statistics office says 49 femicide cases were tried in 2025, while independent counts differ—fueling renewed debate over how violence is classified and tracked. U.S. Immigration Policy Impact: New “public charge” guidance for green card applicants takes effect Sept. 18, expanding scrutiny of means-tested benefits—raising stakes for families seeking lawful permanent residence. U.S.–Iran Flashpoint: Trump denied Iran talks and posted a map labeling the Strait of Hormuz “new U.S. territory,” drawing sharp Iranian pushback and heightening regional risk. Florida Politics: Progressive Angie Nixon upset Alex Vindman in Florida’s Senate primary, setting up a November race against Ashley Moody.

Cuban Protest Crackdown: Alamar mother Doraykis Delgado González (Koky Pena) remains jailed after a peaceful blackout protest, with authorities using arrests to silence criticism of unequal power distribution. Economic Pressure at the Local Level: Matanzas small businesses are squeezed by price caps and costly inputs, pushing owners toward closures as customers buy only essentials. Energy Crisis, Everyday Life: Banco Popular de Ahorro branch closures in Sierra de Cubitas leave elderly residents unable to withdraw pensions, echoing wider banking-hour cuts tied to the power crunch. Humanitarian Aid from Abroad: Russia delivered food and portable flashlights to Havana amid severe outages, underscoring how basic supplies have become political. State Narrative vs. Reality: Economist Pedro Monreal tore into a Cubadebate legal-style piece on prices, arguing it dodges real supply-and-demand causes. Internationalism & Culture: Cuba’s deaf youth delegation received its flag for the Pan American Games in Guayaquil, while UNEAC-linked cultural events and a Russia poster exhibition highlighted the regime’s centenary messaging. Regional Security Context: A report says the U.S. is quietly deporting Cuban migrants via third-country routing, fitting a broader pressure campaign.

Diplomatic Fallout: The Dominican Popular Movement (MPD) called Luis Abinader’s decision to order Cuban diplomats and their families to leave “shameful,” arguing it undermines historic solidarity and signals alignment with the Trump administration’s Cuba policy. Sanctions & Daily Life: A Santiago de Cuba crackdown on self-employed vendors fined workers for not having electronic payment options, highlighting the squeeze of being forced toward transfers while many suppliers still demand cash or foreign currency. Cuba’s International Position: A Disenso Foundation report for Spain’s Foro Madrid urged Madrid to break with Cuba’s “kleptocracy,” while also spotlighting the long-running, poorly transparent question of Cuba’s debt to Spain. Regional Solidarity & Health: Cuban-trained physicians joined earthquake relief in Colombia, reinforcing Cuba’s medical internationalism as the death toll rises. Political Memory: Cuba marked Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday amid ongoing energy and economic strain, with new local “legacy” projects and inaugurations in places like Las Tunas.

Cuba–U.S. Sanctions & Economy: A new report argues U.S. sanctions have pushed Cuba’s tourism near zero, leaving hotels empty and tens of thousands jobless, while everyday shortages deepen. Tech & Control: China’s Qianfan is pitched as a satellite internet option for Cuba, but the bigger story is how Starlink terminals reportedly keep operating illegally because Havana can’t fully control or cut them off. Medical Access: In Guantánamo, 20 electric vehicles are rolling out to transport hemodialysis patients, with plans to shift charging to solar. Diplomacy & Aid: Cuba sent condolences to Indonesia after a 7.7 earthquake; separately, the U.S. embassy in Havana says it met with the Bahamas ambassador to discuss Cuba and regional interests. Regional Mobility: Panama extended transit visas for certain Cuban travelers until 2029. Human Cost & Prices: A Facebook calculation puts a month of children’s breakfast and snacks at over 10,000 pesos, underscoring how food inflation hits families. Fidel Centenary Debate: Multiple analyses revisit the gap between Castro’s equality rhetoric and claims of elite wealth amid widespread extreme poverty.

Opposition Under Pressure: Cuban opposition activist Diosbel Véliz Marín was stabbed to death in Havana, with activists calling for a transparent investigation into whether it was robbery or something else. Cultural Resistance: El Proyecto, a new independent cultural center in El Vedado, is operating inside a private home as a rare space for concerts and screenings amid near-total power-system collapse. Energy Crisis Reality Check: The Antonio Guiteras thermoelectric plant announced it was back online at 190 MW, but Cubans mocked the reliability after repeated outages and short-lived reconnections. Propaganda Meets Backlash: A Fidel Castro centenary “13 de Agosto” kindergarten opened in Nuevitas, while elsewhere a billboard of Castro in Holguín was smeared with red paint, sparking debate over whether it was protest or vandalism. Human Rights & Demography: A hunger strike by prisoner José Ramón Solano Randiche ended after a sentence reduction; meanwhile a demographer warned Cuba’s population could fall to about 5.6 million as fertility drops, mortality rises, and emigration accelerates. U.S.-Cuba Tensions: The U.S. ambassador in Argentina again floated political change in Cuba “before the end of the year,” as Washington continues to frame Cuba as a security problem.

US-Cuba Dialogue: President Miguel Díaz-Canel says Cuba is willing to talk with the United States “without pressure,” insisting any talks must be on “equal” terms and without interference—amid renewed Trump-era threats tied to oil and electricity strain. Economic Pressure & Policy Design: Economist Pedro Monreal argues Cuba’s 176-measure reform package lacks a macroeconomic stabilization axis, warning it risks becoming partial liberalization without a coherent anchor. Diplomacy Under Strain: In the Dominican Republic, Cuban diplomats are packing ahead of a deadline after Santo Domingo ordered the departure of nine officials, escalating a fresh Havana–Santo Domingo rupture. Human Rights & Opposition Violence: Opposition activist Diosbel Véliz Marín was murdered in Havana while working as a pedicab driver, prompting calls for a transparent investigation. Power, Food, and Daily Life: Reports highlight banking failures and the limits of digital payments, while Cubans face food and energy shortages that make basic purchases harder. Regional Security: CARICOM’s Operation Eclipse seized about $54.5 million in illicit assets in a multi-country Caribbean smuggling crackdown. Fidel Centenary Politics: Multiple pieces mark Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday, including international solidarity messaging and renewed debate over his legacy as Cuba’s crisis deepens.

Cuba–U.S. Sanctions Shift: Washington is moving away from military options and toward tighter sanctions aimed at cutting regime revenue, with officials weighing pressure tactics meant to create fractures and bargaining space. Diplomatic Fallout: Cuba’s embassy staff in the Dominican Republic began packing after Santo Domingo ordered nine diplomats (and families) to leave; protests are planned in the DR, while Havana denounces the move as bowing to U.S. pressure. Economic Strain, Up Close: Food prices and shortages keep worsening—oil costs have surged after price-cap changes, and even substitutes like pork fat are scarce, with families posting “oil strike” jokes and school-snack worries. Public Mood: A new human-rights survey reports overwhelming distrust in Díaz-Canel/Marrero’s management and skepticism about recent reforms. Local Governance Under Pressure: Díaz-Canel urged Guanabacoa to solve problems with municipal autonomy, citing power outages, waste, and water issues. Opposition Prisoners: 11J protester Fernando Mitchel Bárzaga was released after serving his sentence, vowing to keep fighting. Health Protest: Guillermo del Sol remains in critical condition after nearly 60 days on hunger strike.

U.S. Cuba Policy Shift: The Trump administration is moving away from military options and toward tighter sanctions, aiming to choke off revenue streams and pressure the Castro-linked leadership into fractures. Diplomatic Fallout in the Dominican Republic: Santo Domingo ordered nine Cuban diplomats and their families to leave, and Cuba’s ambassador downplayed the move as resilience—while Dominican critics and grassroots groups called protests and questioned whether the decision reflects U.S. pressure or even intelligence-linked concerns. Energy Crisis, Up Close: Havana residents report worsening grid failures, including a transformer explosion in Boyeros with claims that no technicians arrived after repeated complaints. Food and Money Reality Check: A Holguín report highlights how price controls and profit caps collide with supply-chain rules that still force merchants into foreign-currency dead ends; meanwhile a viral “what $15 buys” video shows how shortages turn basic groceries into a luxury. Fidel Centenary Politics: Prime Minister Marrero used the centenary campaign to repeat the line that “Fidel lives in every place where truth and justice are defended,” even as the island faces blackouts and scarcity. Regional Security: CARICOM’s Operation Eclipse seized about $54.5M in illicit assets and contraband across Caribbean smuggling routes.

Fidel Centenary in Havana: Cuba marked Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday with a major cultural-political event at the Karl Marx Theater, attended by Raúl Castro, Díaz-Canel, and top Communist Party figures, as officials framed Castro as a “warrior” whose legacy endures. US Pressure, Sanctions Focus: A new U.S. approach is reportedly shifting away from military options toward tighter sanctions and cutting regime revenue, aiming to create fractures inside Cuba’s leadership. Energy and Food Crisis on Display: Blackouts and shortages keep worsening daily life, from residents in Alamar reporting months of frequent power interruptions to Cubans describing food as “a luxury,” including outrage over egg prices and rising costs tied to the electricity squeeze. Agriculture Push in Havana: Vice President Salvador Valdés Mesa and PM Manuel Marrero Cruz demanded higher food production during a visit to the Santiago de las Vegas Defense Zone, linking the drive to water, healthcare energy security, and renewable use. Repression and Trial Watch: Activist Anna Bensi says her crackdown and reopened case are meant to intimidate people who speak out, while a Catholic priest’s column warns the control system can’t last forever. Diplomatic Ripples: The week also featured renewed debate over Cuba’s international standing, including calls from Namibia to lift the U.S. embargo.

Cuba-Dominican Diplomatic Rift: Santo Domingo ordered nine Cuban embassy officials and their families to leave within seven days, while Havana rejected the move as submission to U.S. pressure and cited Vienna Convention obligations. U.S. Pressure and Cuba’s Crisis: A UN official warned that sanctions-driven “overcompliance” is delaying humanitarian shipments, including cancer drugs and water-treatment equipment, as firms fear U.S. reprisals. Military Option vs. Economic Squeeze: U.S. Secretary of War Pete Hegseth said “all options” remain on the table for Cuba, but a separate report says Washington is leaning toward economic pressure rather than troop deployment. Humanitarian and Energy Strain: Cuba’s centenary celebrations unfolded amid deep shortages and rolling blackouts, with the government using Fidel’s legacy to frame an economic reinvention. Regional Solidarity: Namibia’s president called for the unconditional lifting of the U.S. embargo, linking Cuba’s support for African liberation to Fidel’s centenary. Migration at the Florida Coast: Police detained 10 migrants believed to be from Cuba after a boat landed in Key West, with custody transferred to U.S. Customs and Border Protection.

Fidel Centenary Amid Crisis: Cuba marked Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday with rallies, exhibitions, and international events, but the celebrations land against severe shortages and rolling blackouts tied to the U.S. energy blockade and sanctions. Diplomatic Fallout with the Dominican Republic: Havana condemned Santo Domingo’s expulsion of Cuban diplomats and their families, saying it reflects U.S. pressure and violates the Vienna Convention, while the Dominican government cited diplomatic procedures without details. Energy and Food Pressure: Cuba received another Chinese rice shipment (15,000 tons) and continued solar support as the island’s power squeeze worsens. Economic Reform Backlash: Provincial authorities moved to re-tighten controls after price-cap liberalization sparked inflation, including profit-margin rules and more inspections and fines. U.S. Military Warning: A new U.S. push in Latin America raised alarms after Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said “all options” remain on the table regarding Cuba, including military options. International Solidarity Campaigns: Namibia renewed its call to end the embargo and reported raising over N$700,000 for humanitarian aid to Cuba, including medical supplies and solar kits. Raúl Castro Public Return: Raúl Castro made a rare appearance at a Fidel centenary event in Havana, drawing a standing ovation amid tight security and heightened U.S. legal pressure.

Fidel at 100 and Cuba’s squeeze: As Cuba marks Fidel Castro’s centenary, the island is also facing a deepening economic crisis, with a new study from the Cuban Observatory of Human Rights saying 94% of Cubans live in extreme poverty and most people report skipping meals amid shortages and blackouts. Raúl Castro’s public return: Raúl Castro reappeared in Havana for a centenary event, drawing a standing ovation amid tight security, while the U.S. has indicted him in Florida. U.S. military pressure revived: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth again warned that “all options are on the table,” including military options, as Washington tightens sanctions and indictments. Diplomatic fallout in the region: The Dominican Republic ordered nine Cuban diplomats and their families to leave within seven days, citing Vienna Convention powers. Energy politics, not just infrastructure: China delivered another 5,000 solar systems to Cuba, highlighting how Havana is trying to blunt the impact of the U.S. energy blockade with renewables. Cuba in the spotlight abroad: Cuba’s foreign minister rejected a New York Times claim linking a Raul Castro grandson to trafficking, denying any government link while not directly ruling out individual involvement.

Fidel Castro Centenary: Cuba marked Fidel Castro’s 100th birthday with major public events, from the International Book Fair to concerts and leftist gatherings, even as the island faces an intensifying squeeze tied to U.S. energy blockade and sanctions. Political Prisoners: A new report says Cuba hit a record high of political prisoners in July, with 1,327 jailed for political reasons, including a 13-year-old reportedly beaten during protests. Security Crackdowns in Havana: In Guanabacoa, residents say a large military deployment and checkpoints are expanding amid blackout anger and rising robberies, fueling fears of repression. U.S. Pressure and Military Talk: U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned “all options are on the table,” including military action, while Russia’s deputy foreign minister dismissed new sanctions as “impotence.” Sanctions and Energy Fallout: Russia also said Cuba’s relations won’t be derailed by intimidation, as Cuba’s crisis deepens alongside reports of fuel and electricity disruptions. U.S. Cuba Policy Roadmap: Marco Rubio reiterated that Cuba’s change would take years, citing Eastern Europe’s transition timeline. International Solidarity: South Africa’s parties largely backed Cuba’s call to mobilize against U.S. sanctions, though the Democratic Alliance walked out of a committee meeting.

Fidel Castro Centenary Diplomacy: Cuba opened the 1st International Colloquium “Fidel: Legacy and Future” in Havana, drawing 1,500 participants from 63 countries, as Díaz-Canel and ICAP officials renewed calls for solidarity against the U.S. blockade and framed Fidel’s internationalism as a “moral weapon.” Energy Crisis, Small Fixes: Cuba inaugurated its first fast/ultra-fast solar charging station in Villa Clara and expanded renewable-energy incentives, while separate reporting paints a grim picture of fuel shortages and rolling blackouts shaping daily life. U.S. Pressure and Cuba’s Response: Deputy Foreign Minister Carlos Fernández de Cossío highlighted Fidel’s lessons on sovereignty and refusing negotiations with adversaries, as Cuba’s leadership continues to denounce humanitarian impacts of U.S. sanctions. Regional Politics Watch: U.S. senators pressed Rubio and Treasury on paused Russia counter-evasion sanctions, underscoring how Washington’s enforcement priorities ripple across Cuba’s geopolitical environment. Public Life & Security: Cuba also marked Fidel with provincial honors for health workers and internationalist missions, while another story notes intensified efforts to confront “social indiscipline” at the neighborhood level.